The global cannabis market has seen significant regulatory milestones in countries such as Germany, Brazil and South Africa in legalising adult-use cannabis for personal possession and consumption purposes, accompanied by an increase in access via medical channels. Market growth has been considerable, with more medical cannabis operators entering the market, fuelling competition in global supply chains.
In North America, operators are witnessing high competition as brands battle for market share, leading to price compression and reduced margins. In Canada, competition has intensified domestically with sales continuing to fluctuate but not reaching previous highs, leading many operators to venture out into international markets. In the US, multi-state operators continue to exit regulated states as they are not able to maintain high capital costs and taxes as reforms slowly roll out. On the federal level, progress is currently being made on the rescheduling of cannabis from a Schedule I to a Schedule III drug, and on the state level, four states held cannabis legalisation (medical or recreational) ballots in the 2024 election with only the medical cannabis ballot in Nebraska receiving the necessary votes.
In Europe, controlled adult-use legalisation in Germany and the declassification of cannabis as a narcotic are reshaping the region’s largest cannabis market. In the Netherlands and Switzerland there is progress in the development of adult-use trials and experimental systems, though these are still in their early stages. Medical use is expanding rapidly in the key markets of the United Kingdom and Germany, with Poland also seeing a large expansion in medical sales. Telemedicine is a strong theme in the expansion of these markets. The status quo remains elsewhere, with Italy and the Netherlands both seeing no change in domestic medical markets. A new medical market has come online in Greece with patients accessing treatment for the first time, while in Denmark it was announced that the country plans to make its medical cannabis access scheme permanent, in 2026, following the end of its pilot scheme in 2025. Regulatory stagnation is delaying development of the market in the future potentially large markets of Spain and France.
In Latin America (LATAM), producers are making strides in medical exports to Australia and Europe. Colombia, in particular, is seeing success as a genetics hub, and is exporting ever larger volumes of cannabis abroad. The region’s largest market, Brazil, opened up to more medical use in 2024, with the focus on cannabidiol-based (CBD-based) medicines. Personal possession and consumption were also liberalised in the country. Intra-regional trade is growing tentatively, with patient associations playing a key role in getting treatment to patients in various countries. Small-scale medical markets are common across the region. Lack of regulatory clarity is holding back development of the industry in Mexico, as businesses currently operate with uncertainty regarding the legality of activity.
In Oceania, medical cannabis markets are witnessing strong growth as the number of prescribers, patients and prescriptions continue to increase, fuelling domestic sales. Especially in Australia, which saw a considerable increase in medicinal cannabis products sold in H1 2024. However, there have been ongoing fears by the health authorities that some operators, clinics and prescribers are conducting malpractice and putting profits over patients by prescribing medical cannabis inappropriately, leading to investigations and suspensions, and fuelling the debate for tighter controls. Domestic production of medical cannabis has ramped up in New Zealand and Australia, with both countries also focusing on international markets. New Zealand, in particular, has seen regulatory developments that have eliminated previous bottlenecks associated with quality standards for medical exports, thereby providing New Zealand with a greater opportunity in international markets. In Australia, on a federal level, the adult-use legalisation bill presented by the Green Party failed to gain support from the Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee. On a state level, there is growing support for cannabis legalisation with some authorities considering investigating and assessing its potential socio-economic impact.
In Africa, the South African cannabis industry witnessed a milestone year, with the country legalising cannabis for personal use and home cultivation, creating a thriving domestic industry. The country also saw a notable increase in commercial exports of medical cannabis to Europe. Other nations, such as Lesotho, continue to produce medical cannabis for export to Europe, while in Rwanda, the first medical cannabis producer is aiming to come online soon. In Morocco, there has been significant development in establishing a medical cannabis production industry, with the National Agency for the Regulation of Cannabis-Related Activities (ANRAC) approving over 3,000 licences for cannabis cultivation and production in 2024. Large reported production volumes do not currently translate to export volumes however, with only limited quantities being exported under licence so far. The government is aiming to leverage the specialised expertise and knowledge developed within the country, with its significant role in the illicit market as the primary source of quality hash in Europe, hoping to become a source of high quality cannabis production for the European legal market.
In Asia, Thailand’s regulators seek to establish order in Thailand’s chaotic cannabis industry. Having legalised cannabis in 2022, without a sufficient regulatory structure, the previous government had intended to reclassify it as a narcotic. The new coalition government now plans to implement a more regulated system for licensing and control of the supply chain. Meanwhile, Japan has seen a growing CBD and minor cannabinoid market which has led the government and relevant authorities to make a major step towards cannabis reform through revision of their laws; these will legalise medical cannabis products and further criminalise adult-use cannabis, taking effect on 12 December 2024.
