Sizing the European opportunity to 2029

The European medical cannabis market grows fast over the near horizon: from an estimated €1.29 billion in 2025 to €2.2 billion in 2027, with the full forecast to 2030 in the data pack behind this review. For an investment committee, though, the headline number matters less than its composition — and the composition is highly concentrated.

Germany alone accounts for around 65% of European medical sales in 2025, easing only slightly to 62% by 2029; add the United Kingdom and the two markets cover roughly 85% of the 2025 total. The practical implication is that most 'European' cannabis theses are, in revenue terms, German and British theses — and should be stress-tested against those two markets' regulatory settings specifically.

The growth beyond the big two comes from breadth rather than depth. Of the 31 markets we size, 24 are active in 2025, with the remainder activating through the forecast window: Ukraine in 2026, France, Austria and Croatia in 2027, Albania, Romania and Slovakia in 2028. Several established smaller markets are also compounding quickly off low bases — Spain, Denmark and Greece among the fastest — though none moves the European total materially before 2029.

A forecast an IC will accept needs the assumptions on the table: activation years, patient trajectories and the sales series behind every market, not just the aggregate. That is the standard we hold the full dataset to.