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The Canadian Cannabis Report

Economic dynamics have shifted over the past five years from favouring producers to buyers, leading to a recent shortage of low-grade biomass.

  • Analyst-written market analysis
  • PDF + data
  • Published 2024

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About this edition

Economic dynamics have shifted over the past five years from favouring producers to buyers, leading to a recent shortage of low-grade biomass. It combines PP’s proprietary market sizing with regulatory analysis, giving investors and corporates a single, citable reference — delivered digitally, licensed for internal use, and backed by the analysts who built the numbers.

PDF + data

delivery format

2024

published

Inside this edition

Overview

The five-year review is a retrospective evaluation of the first five years of legal adult-use cannabis access, undertaken by an independent expert panel appointed by the Canadian Government. The review provides analysis of whether the policies that have been put in place are achieving their goals, and recommends new and/or updated policies to improve the legal cannabis framework in Canada. In March 2024, the final list of recommendations was published. The key areas in which cannabis industry players have long awaited reform - and anticipated it as a result of this review - are contained in this report. Despite complexities, the legal cannabis market demonstrates resilience, with 69% of buyers exclusively opting for the regulated market in 2022-2023. Signs of market maturation, including price stabilisation and potential tax reforms, suggest a thriving and adaptable legal cannabis industry poised for continued evolution. Available to order now, The Canadian Cannabis Report, written in collaboration with FOXNRTH, also delves deeper into:

Contents34
  • Executive Summary
  • Notable Trends
  • Five-Year Review
  • Market Share Direction
  • GMP & Production Standards
  • Legal Cannabis is Succeeding
  • Price & Market Stabilisation
  • Regulatory Environment
  • History of Cannabis Reform in Canada
  • Two Systems
  • Regulations for Medical Cannabis Treatment
  • Regulation of Production, Distribution & Retail
  • Evaluating Adult-Use Legalisation
  • Five Years of Adult-Use Cannabis in Canada
  • Ongoing Reform
  • Market Environment
  • Supply Chain
  • Competitive Landscape
  • Wholesale Pricing
  • Retail Product Pricing
  • Retail Trends
  • Financial Markets
  • Canada and International Cannabis Dynamics
  • Seeding Markets
  • Seeding Verticals
  • Continued Quiet Leadership
  • Canadian Exports
  • Potential New Opportunities
  • Biomass Markets
  • Market Right Sizing
  • Emerging Future of Cannabis
  • Market Sizing
  • Medical Cannabis Market
  • Adult-Use Cannabis Market
Key findings11
  • Canada continues to be the leader of the international legal cannabis industry, with a dominant role in global supply chains, and domestic regulated sales expected to reach US$5.1 billion by 2028.
  • The Canadian government is currently undertaking a review of the legal adult-use cannabis system which has been in place for the last five years. Based on this review, a number of policy changes in key areas are likely to be enacted, which could significantly impact the cannabis industry in the country.
  • Canada’s competitive landscape has drastically changed over the last five years, as currently more than 1,000 cannabis licences have been issued. There has been a significant transition of market share, which was traditionally dominated by large medical cannabis operators entering the adult-use market, however, now a large proportion is held by smaller independent producers.
  • The country’s industry is divided into two systems, one which governs legal adult-use cannabis and another which governs medical cannabis. There are distinct differences in regulations between provinces, especially regarding taxation, distribution and retail.
  • Since the legalisation of adult-use cannabis, the country has seen a steep decline in medical cannabis patients, sales and shipments from producers to patients. This can be largely attributed to the inefficiencies of its medical cannabis programme and ease of access from adult-use sources.
  • Canada remains the largest exporter of medical cannabis in the world, exporting to international markets such as Germany, Israel, and Australia. In recent years there has been an upsurge of smaller producers entering global supply chains as they offer high-quality and differentiated products which give them a competitive edge on the international stage.
  • Decibel Cannabis is a good example of growing market share. The company recorded a 77% year-on-year growth in recreational sales in 2022, and is now consistently posting positive EBITDA.
  • There is a significant increase in opportunities for smaller Canadian producers to export globally and supply new markets.
  • 69% of cannabis buyers in 2022-2023 reported only purchasing from the legal regulated market.
  • Prices have begun to stabilise and a low point on price appears to have arrived. Tax reforms could bring prices down further still.
  • Cannabis taxes and cannabis trading profits in Canada reached an all-time high last year of CA$1.1 billion.

Who it’s for

Investors & analysts

Defensible sizing and forecasts to underwrite the thesis.

Corporate strategy & FMCG

Opportunity sizing and entry routes across key markets.

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