About this edition

Germany is the largest medical cannabis market in Europe, and June 2026 marks a defining moment in its trajectory. It combines PP’s proprietary market sizing with regulatory analysis, giving investors and corporates a single, citable reference — delivered digitally, licensed for internal use, and backed by the analysts who built the numbers.

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2026

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Inside this edition

Contents30

Executive Summary (p.02)
Market Overview (p.03)
The MedCanG Reform
Product Classification & Magistral Preparation
Domestic Cultivation & Production
Patient Access & Telemedicine
Regulatory Tightening (MedCanG Amendment)
Imports into Germany (p.05)
Quarterly Import Volumes
Canada's Dominance
Annual Imports by Leading Country of Origin
Products & Pricing (p.09)
Product Format & Average Price Table
Dried Flower
Number of Dried Flower SKUs by Country of Origin
Number of SKUs by Distributor Portfolio Size
Market Sizing (p.14)
Scenario-Based Market Sizing
German Medical Cannabis Sales Volumes Forecast (2026–2030)
Abbreviations & Acronyms (p.16)
Germany has cemented its position as Europe's largest medical cannabis market, with imports of medical cannabis flower nearly tripling year-on-year following the MedCanG reform.
Canada remains the dominant supplier, but the published BfArM figures understate its true share — once re-export channels via Portugal are factored in, Canada's effective control of German supply is materially higher than headline numbers suggest.
Domestic cultivation remains marginal — under 1% of total supplied volumes — and is unlikely to meaningfully shift the import dependency through 2030.
The product landscape has more than doubled between early 2024 and Q1 2026, with intensifying competition fuelling sustained price compression across the dried flower category.
Average flower prices have fallen by roughly one-third since the start of 2025, though a thinning premium tier above €9/g still survives — mostly Canadian craft and high-terpene strains.
Telemedicine-led private-pay access has been the single largest growth driver of the post-MedCanG era, with leading platforms reporting prescription growth in the thousands of percent.
Regulatory tightening is the defining variable of 2026. The proposed MedCanG amendment — requiring in-person consultations, restricting mail-order dispensing, and curbing follow-up telemedicine — could materially reshape market trajectory depending on final scope.
Q1 2026 showed the first quarter-on-quarter decline in imports since the MedCanG took effect, signalling either quota exhaustion, regulatory anticipation, or the start of market moderation.
Prohibition Partners' base-case forecast points to €1.15bn revenue in 2026, with multiple scenarios modelled toward 2030 — full revenue ranges, supplier share dynamics, and patient dispensing assumptions are detailed inside the report.
Value, not pricing power, will define winners. As with other maturing markets, scale, supply chain control and resilience to regulatory tightening will be the dominant competitive advantages.

Who it’s for

Investors & analysts

Defensible sizing and forecasts to underwrite the thesis.

Corporate strategy & FMCG

Opportunity sizing and entry routes across key markets.

The German Cannabis Market Report

About this edition

Inside this edition

Who it’s for

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